YTD through Q3: Lakefront Real Estate Report
(January 1, 2022 – September 30, 2022)
The lakefront real estate market for the Finger Lakes Region continues to hold a constricted inventory. While some of the extreme selling tactics are starting to reflect a possible oncoming shift in our local markets, proper pricing of homes for sale will continue to be a key aspect in this market to fuel buyer interest and competition. As you can see from the data below, new lakefront listings decreased 8% year-over-year while the average sale price across the Finger Lakes continued to increase.
Some lakes, such as Cayuga Lake, had great gains in inventory coming to market, resulting in speedy sales and optimum prices. The traditionally more popular lakes such as Canandaigua and Keuka continue to see less inventory for sale. However, we have seen an increase in higher priced listings on these lakes that even though they take longer to go under contract, they continue to drive up the average listing price for those lakes.
Market Shifts
Nationally, most lakefront markets saw an increase in inventory levels this year, according the LakeHomes.com. Our shoreline inventory, however, has been steadily decreasing between 4-11% since 2019 before the pandemic. The value of owning a lake home either as a primary residence, second homes, or investment property continues to drive demand while also restraining owners from taking advantage of the market. Even though they are still getting top dollar returns, some of the extreme selling tactics are starting to reflect a possible oncoming shift in our local markets.
Since the pandemic, sellers have had the ability to take advantage of the market with aggressive strategies to get top dollar including site-unseen deals, delayed negotiations, and cash deals with no contingencies. While we still see some of these happening today, not only are we seeing less of them, but we’re also seeing homes stay on the market longer past the delayed negotiation dates. We’ve also seen an increase in open houses, allowing more buyers the opportunity to get into the home before a deal has been made. Depending on the home, these strategies have to be carefully weighed. But one thing is certain, lakefront buyers continue to be patient and savvy shoppers.
Interest Rates and Buyer Demand
While the rising interest rates are a hot-topic across the real estate industry, it actually has had minimal effect on our lakefront market to date. Despite increasing interest rates, lakefront buyers will continue to purchase homes in 2023. Many of these buyers of Finger Lakes waterfront homes are not dependent on mortgage rates for purchasing. And with inventory expected to remain low, if a buyer falls in love with a lake home, they will make the sale happen since they have been patiently waiting for “the one.”
We continue to see our database of interested lakefront buyers grow substantially each year. With the increase in travel demand for lakefront vacation homes in the Finger Lakes, more and more of our guests are falling in love with the lake life experience our region offers. In fact, we are pacing 19% ahead for 2023 bookings for our lakefront rentals.
Outlook for 2023
Heading into 2023, we expect to see similar market conditions as 2022, which includes continued inventory challenges throughout the year. The NAR’s (National Association of Realtors) predicts US home prices won’t experience major declines and could possibly rise slightly in 2023 if mortgage rates remain around 7%.
We’ve talked with many lakefront homeowners who are on the fence with selling. Our best advice is to consider your long-term goals. If you’re considering turning your lake home into your retirement location of choice or you want to pass the home along to your children, then absolutely hold onto it. However, if you are considering selling within the next couple of years, now may be the best time. We are confident that the inventory will not soar to the pre-pandemic numbers this coming year. However, there are major advantages to selling in the “off season.” With inventory being at its lowest this time of year, your home with have optimum visibility with reduced competition.
If you are considering selling your home, contact our lakefront real estate team to discuss your goals and receive a complimentary market evaluation. We are happy to assist you with weighing the options and determining how we can best assist you with achieving your real estate goals.
